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The Russians Did Much Bigger Space Launch Vehicles For Launching Satellites And For Getting Men In Orbit. They Did That Much Sooner Than America Because America Was Very Good At Something Else.

-Burt Rutan

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The Russians Did Much

Burt Rutan

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The Russians Did Much Bigger Space Launch Vehicles For Launching Satellites And For Getting Men In Orbit. They Did That Much Sooner Than America Because America Was Very Good At Something Else.

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By 1931, After A Few Years' Experience Of Flying Scheduled Airlines, Those Planes Were Operating At Roughly 600 Times The Safety Of The Space Shuttle. I Look At Safety Not In Terms Of Fatalities Per Passenger-mile, But When You Get In And Close The Door, What Is The Risk Of Dying On This Flight?

To Allow Public Access To Orbit, We Would Need Breakthroughs That Would Lower The Cost By A Lot More Than An Order Of Magnitude And Increase Safety By A Factor Of 100 As Compared To Every Launch System Used Since The First Manned Space Flight. I Think Airborne Launch Will Be A Significant Part Of The Safety Solution.

I Like To Call The Difference Between Research And Development. Some People Use That Interchangeably. They'll Say R&d. They're Two Totally Different Things.

Research And Development

When You Have A Transportation System That The Price Of Propellant Is Essentially Negligible Something Is Very Wrong. If You Look At Any Other Transportation System, A Car, A Motorcycle, A Train, An Oil Tanker, An Airliner, You Name It; About A Quarter To A Third Of The Operating Cost Is Buying The Propellant.

I Believe That Research, That You Can Claim That You're Doing Research Only If Half Of The People, And I'm Talking About Half Of The Experts, Believe That The Goal Is Impossible.

Nasa Is Doing Nothing But Development. They're Not Doing Research In Manned Spaceflight At All And I See No Reason For Them To Do That Because We Already Know That It Will Work And We Already Know Exactly How It Will Work.

Space Travel Is The Only Technology That Is More Dangerous And More Expensive Now Than It Was In Its First Year. Fifty Years After Yuri Gagarin, The Space Shuttle Ended Up Being More Dangerous And More Expensive To Fly Than Those First Throwaway Rockets, Even Though Large Portions Of It Were Reusable. It's Absurd.

America Was Good Enough To Make A Small Compact Lighter Weight Nuclear Weapon. The Russians Still Had These Big Clunky Heavy Ones, So They Had To Build The Big Boosters In The Arm's War, So Now All Of The Sudden Russia Could Take Off The Shelf And Put Into Orbit Much Heavier Things Than We Could, So That's Why They Had The Original Leadership.

Usually The Wacky People Have The Breakthroughs. The Smart People Dont.

Look At The Aerospace Industry As It Was Just After The Kennedy Talk. We Were Hiring Like Crazy. We Were Trying To Get People Graduated From College. Hey, You Got To Go To The Program. We Need You.

At Various Times Over 20 Years, I Did Preliminary Designs For Aircraft Like The Stratolaunch. For That Whole Time I Was Encouraging Us To Do Something That Almost Everyone Else Felt You Could Not Do.

There Will Be A New Industry, And We Are Just Now In The Beginning. I Will Predict That In Twelve Or Fifteen Years There Will Be Tens Of Thousands, Maybe Even Hundreds Of Thousands Of People, That Fly And See That Black Sky.

Since Yuri Gagarin And Al Shepard's Epoch Flights In 1961, All Space Missions Have Been Flown Only Under Large, Expensive Government Efforts. By Contrast, Our Program Involves A Few, Dedicated Individuals Who Are Focused Entirely On Making Spaceflight Affordable.

With Any Luck, By The Time Nasa's Space Probe Hits Pluto, You'll Be Booking A Spaceflight With A Privately Run Suborbital Airline.

Flight Out Of The Atmosphere Is A Simple Thing To Do And Should Have Been Available To The Public Twenty Years Ago. Ten Years From Now, We Will Have Space Tourism Where You Will Be Able To See The Black Sky And The Curvature Of The Earth. It Will Be The Most Exciting Roller Coaster Ride You Can Buy.

Within 25 Years, Virtual Reality Meetings Will Be Essentially Transparent To Being There In Person. Once We Can Do This, The Idea Of Climbing Into An Aircraft, And Burning Up Huge Quantities Of Fossil Fuels To Propel Our Bodies And Briefcases Full Of Papers, Will Seem Absolutely Backward.

When Theres Ever A Breakthrough, A True Breakthrough, You Can Go Back And Find A Time Period When The Consensus Was 'well, Thats Nonsense!', So What That Means Is That A True Creative Researcher Has To Have Confidence In Nonsense.

We'll Go Back To The Moon By Not Learning Anything New.

A Nasa Astronaut And A Russian Cosmonaut Can't Be Creative. He Has To Follow A Predetermined Detailed Checklist Written By An Engineer And If He Gets A Little Creative He'll Never Fly Again.

I Drove An Electric Car For Seven Years Because Of Its Advanced Technology, Not Because I Have Any Concerns About Energy Resources. I Have None At All. And When Environmentalists Say That Global Warming Is Dangerous, Unprecedented And That We'll Have A Tipping Point For Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, It's Just Nonsense.

There Was A Wonderful Little Short Four-year Time Period When Marvelous Things Happened. It Started In 1908, When The Wright Brothers Flew In Paris, And Everybody Said, 'ooh, Hey, I Can Do That.' There's Only A Few People That Have Flown In Early 1908. In Four Years, 39 Countries Had Hundreds Of Airplanes, Thousands Of Pilots.

Nasa Works For The White House. There Are Many At Nasa That Wish They Were Building A Modern Replacement For The Shuttle. However, They Had Marching Orders To Instead Work On Other Things, Some Of Which Should Have No Place In A Research Organization.

Everything Looks Nonsensical Before It Works.

No One Knows How To Make Going To Orbit Orders Of Magnitude Safer And Orders Of Magnitude More Affordable.

In 12 Or 15 Years, There Will Be Routine, Affordable Space Tourism Not Just In The U.s. But In A Lot Of Countries.

We Didn't Know The Importance Of Home Computers Before The Internet. We Had Them Mostly For Fun, Then The Internet Came Along And Was Enabled By All The Pcs Out There.

It's Not Good Enough For Us To Have Generations Of Kids That ... Look Forward To A Better Version Of A Cell Phone With A Video In It. They Need To Look Forward To Exploration.

The Photographs Of Space Taken By Our Astronauts Have Been Published All Over The Place. But The Eye Is A Much More Dynamic Mechanism Than Any Camera Or Pictures. It's A More Exciting View In Person Than Looking At The Photographs. Of Course, I Personally Am Sick And Tired Of Hearing People Talk Like That: I Want To See It Myself!

Airplanes Were Invented By Natural Selection. Now You Can Say That Intelligent Design Designs Our Airplanes Of Today, But There Was No Intelligent Design Really Designing Those Early Airplanes. There Were Probably At Least 30,000 Different Things Tried, And When They Crash And Kill The Pilot, Don't Try That Again.

I Don't See Anything Beneficial About The Us Spending 100 Billion Dollars To Go Back To The Moon Unless We Learn Something New That Will Help Us Go To The Moons Of Saturn Okay And So We Ought To Use That To Breed New Breakthroughs And To Test New Breakthroughs And To Fund It.

In The Coming Era Of Manned Space Exploration By The Private Sector, Market Forces Will Spur Development And Yield New, Low-cost Space Technologies. If The History Of Private Aviation Is Any Guide, Private Development Efforts Will Be Safer, Too.

The Russians Did Much Bigger Space Launch Vehicles For Launching Satellites And For Getting Men In Orbit. They Did That Much Sooner Than America Because America Was Very Good At Something Else.

Our Goal Is To Show That You Can Develop A Robust, Safe Manned Space Program And Do It At An Extremely Low Cost.

There Is A Rampant Tendency In Any Industry Where Someone Is Trying To Sell Something With A Bunch Of Data, Where They Cherry Pick A Little Bit... Bias A Little Bit. This Becomes Quite Easy When There Is An Enormous Amount Of Data To Cherry Pick From.

I Have A Hunch The Most Important Reason We're Going To Space Is Not Known Now.

I Spent About Seven Years During The Vietnam War Flight-testing Airplanes For The Air Force. And Then I Went In And I Had A Lot Of Fun Building Airplanes That People Could Build In Their Garages. And Some 3,000 Of Those Are Flying. Of Course, One Of Them Is Around-the-world Voyager.

The Criticism Is, Once I Get Something Flying, I Lose Interest In It.

Confidence In Nonsense Is Required.

A Nasa-funded Study Estimates That If The Price Of A Ticket To Space Approached $100,000, Close To A Million People Would Buy One. That's A $100 Billion Industry. Microsoft Cofounder Paul Allen Gave Me $20 Million In Startup Funding To Go After That Market.

A True Creator Researches How To Have Confidence In Nonsense.

Have Confidence

The Next 15 Years Will See Thousands Of People Leave The Atmosphere On Suborbital Flights. My Company's Ss2 System Might Fly 100,000 People By 2024. If It Is Shown To Be Highly Profitable, Perhaps We Will See 20,000 People Traveling To Orbit By 2035, And Then Thousands To The Moon By 2050. If We Make A Courageous Decision, Like The Program We Kicked Off For Apollo, We Will See Our Grandchildren In Outposts On Other Planets.

Testing Leads To Failure, And Failure Leads To Understanding

Testing Yourself

Science Is Not About Consensus, And Consensus Is Not Science.

Virgin Galactic, Which Will Be Operating Spaceshiptwo, Will Be Only One Of Several Spacelines. The Competitors For Virgin Include The Russians, Bezos's Blue Origin, And Possibly Rocketplane Kistler. And Likely A Couple Of Others Who Are Smart Enough Not To Tell People What They Are Doing!

Nasa's Myriad Failures Are In Many Ways The Natural Consequence Of A Catastrophic Combination Of Bureaucracy, Monopoly, And A Calcifying Aversion To The Kind Of Risk Necessary For Innovation.

I Was Shocked To Find That There Were Actually Climate Scientists Who Wouldn't Share The Raw Data, But Would Only Share Their Conclusions In Summary Graphs That Were Used To Prove Their Various Theories About Planet Warming. In Fact I Began To Smell Something Really Bad, And The Worse That Smell Got, The Deeper I Looked.

We Didn't Have Practical Model Rockets In The '50s. The Ones We Made Were Very Dangerous And The Kids That Played With Them Didn't Have All Their Fingers, And Sometimes Were Blind In One Eye.

Achieving Something That Has Never Existed In Manned Spaceflight And That Is High Volume And Public Access.

My Study Is Not As A Climatologist, But From A Completely Different Perspective In Which I Am An Expert … For Decades, As A Professional Experimental Test Engineer, I Have Analyzed Experimental Data And Watched Others Massage And Present Data. I Became A Cynic; My Conclusion - 'if Someone Is Aggressively Selling A Technical Product Who's Merits Are Dependent On Complex Experimental Data, He Is Likely Lying'. That Is True Whether The Product Is An Airplane Or A Carbon Credit.

We Need Affordable Space Travel To Inspire Our Youth, To Let Them Know That They Can Experience Their Dreams, Can Set Significant Goals And Be In A Position To Lead All Of Us To Future Progress In Exploration, Discovery And Fun. Thanks To The X Prize For The Inspiration.

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