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It’s Our Generation That Is Witnessing The End Of Western Predominance. The Average American Used To Be More Than 20 Times Richer Than The Average Chinese. Now It’s Just Five Times, And Soon It Will Be 2.5 Times.

-Niall Ferguson

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It’s Our Generation That

Niall Ferguson

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It’s Our Generation That Is Witnessing The End Of Western Predominance. The Average American Used To Be More Than 20 Times Richer Than The Average Chinese. Now It’s Just Five Times, And Soon It Will Be 2.5 Times.

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Between 1980 And 2000 The Number Of Patents Registered In Israel Was 7652 Compared With 367 For All The Arab Countries Combined.

It's All Very Well For Us To Sit Here In The West With Our High Incomes And Cushy Lives, And Say It's Immoral To Violate The Sovereignty Of Another State. But If The Effect Of That Is To Bring People In That Country Economic And Political Freedom, To Raise Their Standard Of Living, To Increase Their Life Expectancy, Then Don't Rule It Out.

For 500 Years The West Patented Six Killer Applications That Set It Apart. The First To Download Them Was Japan. Over The Last Century, One Asian Country After Another Has Downloaded These Killer Apps- Competition, Modern Science, The Rule Of Law And Private Property Rights, Modern Medicine, The Consumer Society And The Work Ethic. Those Six Things Are The Secret Sauce Of Western Civilization.

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The Armenian Genocide Showed What Could Happen When Empires Were Beaten Into Nations.

If The Financial System Has A Defect, It Is That It Reflects And Magnifies What We Human Beings Are Like. Money Amplifies Our Tendency To Overreact, To Swing From Exuberance When Things Are Going Well To Deep Depression When They Go Wrong. Booms And Busts Are Products, At Root, Of Our Emotional Volatility.

I Refuse To Accept That Western Civilization Is Like Some Hopeless Old Version Of Microsoft Dos, Doomed To Freeze, Then Crash. I Still Cling To The Hope That The United States Is The Mac To Europe's Pc, And That If One Part Of The West Can Successfully Update And Reboot Itself, It's America.

Empires, Essentially, Create Order. In Their Absence, You Don't End Up With Lots Of Happy, Little Nation-states Full Of People Sitting Around Campfires Singing John Lennon's "imagine." What You End Up With Is Civil War, Anarchy.

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If Young Men Have Jobs - Or The Prospects Of Jobs - They Are Less Likely To Take Up Arms, They Are Less Likely To Join The Resistance.

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So Much Of Liberalism In Its Classical Sense Is Taken For Granted In The West Today And Even Disrespected. We Take Freedom For Granted, And Because Of This We Don't Understand How Incredibly Vulnerable It Is.

I Think That It Is Important To Be Gregarious, And That Friendships Are Not Just A Leisure Pursuit, That They Are An Integral Part Of What It Is To Be Human, And One Does Better Work If One Has A Circle Of Friends That Is Active.

You Really Struggle To Be A Successful Empire If You Are Also The World's Biggest Debtor.

All Empires Have Depended On Local Legitimacy And Local Collaboration; They Are Not Based Primarily On Coercion. An Imperial Rule That Relies Wholly On Coercion Can't Endure. It's Too Expensive.

The Rise Of The West Is, Quite Simply, The Pre-eminent Historical Phenomenon Of The Second Half Of The Second Millennium After Christ.

The British Press Has An Insatiable Appetite For Making Public Things That Should Be Private. It's A Prurience That I've Never Understood.

American Empire- It Is An Empire That Lacks The Drive To Export Its Capital, Its People And Its Culture To Those Backward Regions Which Need Them Most Urgently And Which, If They Are Neglected, Will Breed The Greatest Threats To Its Security. It Is An Empire, In Short, That Dare Not Speak Its Name. It Is An Empire In Denial.

In The Old Days It Would Have Been A Relatively Simple Matter To Have Checked Hitler's Territorial Ambitions. All You'd Have Needed Would Have Been The 1914 Combination Of Britain, France And Russia. Indeed, If Such An Alliance Had Acted Decisively To Defend Czechoslovakia In 1938, Hitler Might Even Have Been Overthrown By His Own Military. But It Was Not To Be.

My Arguments For Liberal Empire Or Whatever You Want To Call It - Hegemony, Primacy, You Name It - Are Really Activated By A Sense That The Alternatives Involve More Violence, More Repression, More Hardship.

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When I First Came To Oxford, I Struggled To Feel Comfortable In An Anglican, Public School-dominated Institution.

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I Would Say I'm A 19th-century Liberal, Possibly Even An 18th-century One.

As A Teacher, My Strategy Is To Encourage Questioning. I'm The Least Authoritarian Professor You'll Ever Meet.

I Think The Condition Of Imperial Denial Is A Handicap Because If You Do Not Recognize That You Are Essentially Performing The Functions Of An Empire, You Are Incapable Of Learning From The Mistakes Of Past Empires.

Oral History Is A Recipe For Complete Misrepresentation Because Almost No One Tells The Truth, Even When They Intend To.

Telling The Truth

Misrepresentation

When Bond Prices Fall, Interest Rates Soar, With Painful Consequences For All Borrowers.

Today, The Average Korean Works A Thousand Hours More A Year Than The Average German. A Thousand. ... That Is The End Of The Great Divergence.

It’s Our Generation That Is Witnessing The End Of Western Predominance. The Average American Used To Be More Than 20 Times Richer Than The Average Chinese. Now It’s Just Five Times, And Soon It Will Be 2.5 Times.

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