A Conventional Valuation Which Is Established As The Outcome Of The Mass Psychology Of A Large Number Of Ignorant Individuals Is Liable To Change Violently As The Result Of A Sudden Fluctuation Of Opinion Due To Factors Which Do Not Really Make Much Difference To The Prospective Yield; Since There Will Be No Strong Roots Of Conviction To Hold It Steady.

-John Maynard Keynes

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A Conventional Valuation Which

John Maynard Keynes

Topic

Strong

Roots

Differences

More From John Maynard Keynes

Americans Are Apt To Be Unduly Interested In Discovering What Average Opinion Believes Average Opinion To Be.

Believe

Average

America

Everything Is Always Decided For Reasons Other Than The Real Merits Of The Case

Real

Merit

Reason

A Study Of The History Of Opinion Is A Necessary Preliminary To The Emancipation Of The Mind.

History

Mind

Opinion

Those, Who Are Strongly Wedded To What I Shall Call 'the Classical Theory', Will Fluctuate, I Expect, Between A Belief That I Am Quite Wrong And A Belief That I Am Saying Nothing New. It Is For Others To Determine If Either Of These Or The Third Alternative Is Right.

Learning

Power

History

Nor Should The Argument Seem Strange That Taxation May Be So High As To Defeat Its Object, And That, Given Sufficient Time To Gather The Fruits, A Reduction Of Taxation Will Run A Better Chance Than An Increase Of Balancing The Budget.

Running

Investing

Taxation

The Duty Of "saving" Became Nine-tenths Of Virtue And The Growth Of The Cake The Object Of True Religion.

Cake

Growth

Saving

I Feel No Shame At Being Found Still Owning A Share When The Bottom Of The Market Comes…i Would Go Much Further Than That. I Should Say That It Is From Time To Time The Duty Of A Serious Investor To Accept The Depreciation Of His Holdings With Equanimity And Without Reproaching Himself. … An Investor…should Be Aiming Primarily At Long-period Results, And Should Be Solely Judged By These.

Long

Serious

Shame

I Conceive, Therefore, That A Somewhat Comprehensive Socialisation Of Investment Will Prove The Means Of Securing An Approximation To Full Employment.

Mean

Employment

Investing

Of The Maxims Of Orthodox Finance None, Surely, Is More Anti-social Than The Fetish Of Liquidity, The Doctrine Of That It Is A Positive Virtue On The Part Of Investment Institutions To Concentrate Their Resources Upon The Holding Of 'liquid' Securities. It Forgets That There Is No Such Thing As Liquidity Of Investment For The Community As A Whole.

Community

Liquid

Doctrine

So It Is Not An Accident That The Nazi Lads Vent A Particular Fury Against (einstein). He Does Truly Stand For What They Most Dislike, The Opposite Of The Blond Beast Intellectualist, Individualist, Supernationalist, Pacifist, Inky, Plump... How Should They Know The Glory Of The Free-ranging Intellect And Soft Objective Sympathy To Whom Money And Violence, Drink And Blood And Pomp, Mean Absolutely Nothing?

Mean

Blood

Opposites

We Will Not Have Any More Crashes In Our Time.

Depression

Great Depression

Crash

Words Ought To Be A Little Wild, For They Are The Assault Of Thoughts On The Unthinking.

Inspirational

Business

Past

If We Consistently Act On The Optimistic Hypothesis, This Hypothesis Will Tend To Be Realised; Whilst By Acting On The Pessimistic Hypothesis We Can Keep Ourselves For Ever In The Pit Of Want.

Optimistic

Acting

Pits

The Difficulty Lies, Not In The New Ideas, But In Escaping The Old Ones, Which Ramify, For Those Brought Up As Most Of Us Have Been, Into Every Corner Of Our Minds.

Education

Fear

Lying

If We Aim Deliberately At The Impoverishment Of Central Europe, Vengeance, I Dare Predict, Will Not Limp.

Europe

Vengeance

Dare

A Sound Banker, Alas, Is Not One Who Foresees Danger And Avoids It, But One Who, When He Is Ruined, Is Ruined In A Conventional Way Along With His Fellows, So That No One Can Really Blame Him.

Bankers

Sound

Investing

If I Am Right In Supposing It To Be Comparatively Easy To Make Capital-goods So Abundant That The Marginal Efficiency Of Capital Is Zero, This May Be The Most Sensible Way Of Gradually Getting Rid Of Many Of The Objectionable Features Of Capitalism.

Zero

Supposing That

May

I Am Trying To Re-shape And Improve My Central Position.

Trying

Shapes

Position

To Suppose That Safety-first Consists In Having A Small Gamble In A Large Number Of Different Companies Where I Have No Information To Reach A Good Judgment, As Compared With A Substantial Stake In A Company Where One's Information Is Adequate, Strikes Me As A Travesty Of Investment Policy.

Numbers

Safety

Different

The Classical Theorists Resemble Euclidean Geometers In A Non-euclidean World Who, Discovering That In Experience Straight Lines Apparently Parallel Often Meet, Rebuke The Lines For Not Keeping Straight As The Only Remedy For The Unfortunate Collisions Which Are Occurring. Yet, In Truth, There Is No Remedy Except To Throw Over The Axiom Of Parallels And To Work Out A Non-euclidean Geometry.

Work Out

World

Lines

They Offer Me Neither Food Nor Drink - Intellectual Nor Spiritual Consolation... [conservatism] Leads Nowhere; It Satisfies No Ideal; It Conforms To No Intellectual Standard, It Is Not Safe, Or Calculated To Preserve From The Spoilers That Degree Of Civilization Which We Have Already Attained.

Spiritual

Civilization

Intellectual

The Introduction Of A Substantial Government Transfer Tax On All Transactions Might Prove The Most Serviceable Reform Available,with A View To Mitigating The Predominance Of Speculation In The United States.

Government

Views

United States

...by Combining A Popular Hatred Of The Class Of Entrepreneurs With The Blow Already Given To Social Security By The Violent And Arbitrary Disturbance Of Contract,... Governments Are Fast Rendering Impossible A Continuance Of The Social And Economic Order Of The Nineteenth Century.

Blow

Government

Order

As Time Goes On, I Get More And More Convinced That The Right Method Of Investment Is To Put Fairly Large Sums Into Enterprises Which One Thinks One Knows Something About And In The Management Of Which One Thoroughly Believes.

Believe

Thinking

Investing

Speculators May Do No Harm As Bubbles On A Steady Stream Of Enterprise. But The Position Is Serious When Enterprise Becomes A Bubble On A Whirlpool Of Speculation. When The Capital Development Of A Country Becomes A By-product Of The Activities Of A Casino, The Job Is Likely To Be Ill Done.

Country

Jobs

Serious

The Study Of Economics Does Not Seem To Require Any Specialised Gifts Of An Unusually High Order.

Order

Doe

Study

But The Dreams Of Designing Diplomats Do Not Always Prosper, And We Must Trust The Future .

Dream

Design

Diplomats

The Important Thing For Government Is Not To Do Things Which Individuals Are Doing Already, And To Do Them A Little Better Or A Little Worse; But To Do Those Things Which At Present Are Not Done At All.

Government

Important

Done

Most, Probably, Of Our Decisions To Do Something Positive, The Full Consequences Of Which Will Be Drawn Out Over Many Days To Come, Can Only Be Taken As The Result Of Animal Spirits-a Spontaneous Urge To Action Rather Than Inaction, And Not As The Outcome Of A Weighted Average Of Quantitative Benefits Multiplied By Quantitative Probabilities.

Taken

Animal

Average

He Had One Illusion - France; And One Disillusion - Mankind, Including Frenchmen.

France

Illusion

Economics

How Can I Adopt A Creed Which, Preferring The Mud To The Fish, Exalts The Boorish Proletariat Above The Bourgeois And The Intelligentsia Who, With Whatever Faults, Are The Quality In Life And Surely Carry The Seeds Of All Human Advancement?

Quality

Advancement

Mud

There Is No Harm In Being Sometimes Wrong - Especially If One Is Promptly Found Out.

Sometimes

Found

Programming

It Is A Mistake To Think That One Limits One’s Risk By Spreading Too Much Between Enterprises About Which One Knows Little And Has No Reason For Special Confidence.

Mistake

Thinking

Risk

Capitalism Is The Extraordinary Belief That The Nastiest Of Men, For The Nastiest Of Reasons, Will Somehow Work For The Benefit Of Us All.

Peace

Men

Ubuntu

Professional Investment May Be Likened To Those Newspaper Competitions In Which The Competitors Have To Pick Out The Six Prettiest Faces From A Hundred Photographs, The Prize Being Awarded To The Competitor Whose Choice Most Nearly Corresponds To The Average Preferences Of The Competitors As A Whole.

Average

Choices

Competition

I Should Have Drunk More Champagne.

Should Have

Drunk

Champagne

The Considerations Upon Which Expectations Of Prospective Yields Are Based Are Partly Existing Facts Which We Can Assume To Be Known More Or Less For Certain, And Partly Future Events Which Can Only Be Forecasted With More Or Less Confidence.

Yield

Expectations

Investing

The Principle Objectives In Life Are Love, The Creation And Enjoyment If Aesthetic Experience, The Pursuit Of Knowledge. Love Comes A Long Way First.

Long

Principles

Way

Like Odysseus, The President Looked Wiser When He Was Seated.

President

Odysseus

Wiser

The Division Of The Spoils Between The Victors Will Also Provide Employment For A Powerful Office, Whose Doorsteps The Greedy Adventurers And Jealous Concession Hunters Of Twenty Or Thirty Nations Will Crowd And Defile.

Powerful

Jealous

Office

The Great Events Of History Are Often Due To Secular Changes In The Growth Of Population And Other Fundamental Economic Causes, Which, Escaping By Their Gradual Character The Notice Of Contemporary Observers, Are Attributed To The Follies Of Statesmen Or The Fanaticism Of Atheists .

Atheist

Character

Escaping

Thus, The Weight Of My Criticism Is Directed Against The Inadequacy Of The Theoretical Foundations Of The Laissez-faire Doctrine Upon Which I Was Brought Up And For Many Years I Taught

Years

Criticism

Foundation

One's Knowledge And Experience Are Definitely Limited And There Are Seldom More Than Two Or Three Enterprises At Any Given Time In Which I Personally Feel Myself Entitled To Put Full Confidence.

Two

Three

Investing

The Old Saying Holds. Owe Your Banker �1000 And You Are At His Mercy; Owe Him �1 Million And The Position Is Reversed.

Bankers

Mercy

Old Saying

To Suggest Social Action For The Public Good To The City London Is Like Discussing The Origin Of Species To A Bishop Sixty Years Ago.

Years

Cities

Bishops

The Glory Of The Nation You Love Is A Desirable End, — But Generally To Be Obtained At Your Neighbor's Expense.

Love Is

Glory

Neighbor

By This Means (fractional Reserve Banking) Government May Secretly And Unobserved, Confiscate The Wealth Of The People, And Not One Man In A Million Will Detect The Theft.

Mean

Men

People

The Power To Become Habituated To His Surroundings Is A Marked Characteristic Of Mankind.

Characteristics

Surroundings

Mankind

It Would Not Be Foolish To Contemplate The Possibility Of A Far Greater Progress Still.

Progress

Foolish

Possibility

The Idea Behind Stamped Money Is Sound.

Ideas

Sound

Behinds

There Is No Intrinsic Reason For The Scarcity Of Capital.

Scarcity

Reason

Capitalism

The Immense Accumulations Of Fixed Capital Which, To The Great Benefit Of Mankind, Were Built Up During The Half Century Before The War, Could Never Have Come About In A Society Where Wealth Was Divided Equitably.

Wisdom

War

Benefits

When The Capital Development Of A Country Becomes A By-product Of The Activities Of A Casino, The Job Is Likely To Be Ill-done

Country

Jobs

Done

The Love Of Money As A Possession...will Be Recognised For What It Is, A Somewhat Disgusting Morbidity.

Wise

Morbidity

Possession

[silvio] Gesell's Chiefwork Is Written In Cool And Scientific Terms, Although It Is Run Through By A More Passionate And Charged Devotion To Social Justice Than Many Think Fit For A Scholar. I Believe That The Future Will Learn More From The Spirit Of Gesell Then From That Of Marx.

Running

Believe

Thinking

There Is No Subtler, No Surer Means Of Overturning The Existing Basis Of Society Than To Debauch The Currency.

Mean

Economics

Currency

This Siren, This Goat-footed Bard, This Half Human Visitor To Our Age The Hag-ridden And Enchanted Woods Of Celtic Antiquity. One Catches In His Company That Flavour Of Final Purposelessness, Inner Responsibility, Existence Outside Or Away From Our Saxon Good And Evil, Mixed With Cunning, Remorselessness, Love Of Power.

Responsibility

Evil

Age

The Economic Problem...the Problem Of Want And Poverty And The Economic Struggle Between Classes And Nations, Is Nothing But A Frightful Muddle, A Transitory And Unnecessary Muddle.

Struggle

Class

Want

Perhaps A Day Might Come When There Would Be At Last Be Enough To Go Round, And When Posterity Could Enter Into The Enjoyment Of Our Labors.

Would Be

Might

Lasts

I Wish I'd Drunk More Champagne.

Bad Ass

Drunk

Alcohol

I Find Myself More And More Relying For A Solution Of Our Problems On The Invisible Hand Which I Tried To Eject From Economic Thinking Twenty Years Ago.

Thinking

Hands

Years

Lenin Is Said To Have Declared That The Best Way To Destroy The Capitalist System Was To Debauch The Currency. By A Continuing Process Of Inflation, Governments Can Confiscate, Secretly And Unobserved, An Important Part Of The Wealth Of Their Citizens. By This Method They Not Only Confiscate, But They Confiscate Arbitrarily; And, While The Process Impoverishes Many, It Actually Enriches Some. The Sight Of This Arbitrary Rearrangement Of Riches Strikes Not Only At Security, But At Confidence In The Equity Of The Existing Distribution Of Wealth.

Government

Sight

Important

If The Treasury Were To Fill Old Bottles With Bank-notes, Bury Them At Suitable Depths In Disused Coal-mines Which Are Then Filled Up To The Surface With Town Rubbish, And Leave It To Private Enterprise On Well-tried Principles Of Laissez-faire To Dig The Notes Up Again (the Right To Do So Being Obtained, Of Course, By Tendering For Leases Of The Note-bearing Territory), There Need Be No More Unemployment And, With The Help Of Repercussions, The Real Income Of The Community, And Its Capital Wealth, Would Probably Become A Good Deal Greater Than It Actually Is.

Real

Filled Up

Digging A Hole

It Is Investment, I.e. The Increased Production Of Material Wealth In The Shape Of Capital Goods, Which Alone Increases National Wealth.

Shapes

Wealth

Investment

Unlike Physics, For Example, Such Parts Of The Bare Bones Of Economic Theory As Are Expressible In Mathematical Form Are Extremely Easy Compared With The Economic Interpretation Of The Complex And Incompletely Known Facts Of Experience, And Lead One A Very Little Way Towards Establishing Useful Results.

Example

Littles

Way

The Day Is Not Far Off When The Economic Problem Will Take The Back Seat Where It Belongs, And The Arena Of The Heart And The Head Will Be Occupied Or Reoccupied, By Our Real Problems - The Problems Of Life And Of Human Relations, Of Creation And Behavior And Religion.

Real

Heart

Religion

It Is Not The Ownership Of The Instruments Of Production Which It Is Important For The State To Assume. If The State Is Able To Determine The Aggregate Amount Of Resources Devoted To Augmenting The Instruments And The Basic Rate Of Reward To Those Who Own Them, It Will Have Accomplished All That Is Necessary. Moreover, The Necessary Measures Of Socialization Can Be Introduced Gradually And Without A Break In The General Traditions Of Society.

Wisdom

Important

Politics

When The Accumulation Of Wealth Is No Longer Of High Social Importance, There Will Be Great Changes In The Code Of Morals. We Shall Be Able To Rid Ourselves Of Many Of The Pseudo-moral Principles Which Have Hag-ridden Us For Two Hundred Years, By Which We Have Exulted Some Of The Most Distasteful Of Human Qualities Into The Highest Virtues.

Years

Two

Quality

I Believe That The Future Will Learn More From The Spirit Of Gesell Than From That Of Marx .

Believe

Spirit

I Believe

Nothing Mattered Except States Of Mind, Chiefly Our Own.

Pregnancy

Intelligent

Mind

When The Accumulation Of Wealth Is No Longer Of High Social Importance, There Will Be Great Changes In The Code Of Morals.

Wise

Moral

Wealth

The Destruction Of The Inducement To Invest By An Excessive Liquidity-preference Was The Outstanding Evil, The Prime Impediment To The Growth Of Wealth, In The Ancient And Medieval Worlds.

Evil

Growth

World

The Key To Selecting The Winner Isn't Choosing The Face You Think Is The Most Beautiful But Rather The Face Other People Will Pick

Beautiful

Thinking

Keys

In Truth, The Gold Standard Is Already A Barbarous Relic. All Of Us, From The Governor Of The Bank Of England Downwards, Are Now Primarily Interested In Preserving The Stability Of Business, Prices, And Employment, And Are Not Likely, When The Choice Is Forced On Us, Deliberately To Sacrifice These To Outworn Dogma, Which Had Its Value Once, Of 3 Pounds, 17 Shill Ings, 10 1/2 Pence Per Ounce. Advocates Of The Ancient Standard Do Not Observe How Remote It Now Is From The Spirit And The Requirements Of The Age. A Regulated Nonmetallic Standard Has Slipped In Unnoticed. It Exists.

Sacrifice

Choices

Age

But My Lord, When We Addressed This Issue A Few Years Ago, Didn't You Argue The Other Side?" He Said, "that's True, But When I Get More Evidence I Sometimes Change My Mind. What Do You Do?

Years

Issues

Mind

Most Men Love Money And Security More, And Creation And Construction Less, As They Get Older.

Love

Money

Men

It Is A Good Thing To Make Mistakes So Long As You're Found Out Quickly.

Mistake

Long

Good Things

Morally And Philosophically I Find Myself In Agreement With Virtually The Whole Of It: And Not Only In Agreement With It, But In Deeply Moved Agreement.

Philosophy

Book

Agreement

Men Will Not Always Die Quietly.

Men

Economics

Dies

The Treasury Could Fill Old Bottles With Banknotes And Bury Them..and Leave It To Private Enterprises On Well-tried Principles Of Laissez-faire To Dig The Notes Up Again.

Principles

Bottles

Laissez Faire

Investment Based On Genuine Long-term Expectations Is So Difficult Today As To Be Scarcely Practicable.

Long

Expectations

Investing

It Is Enterprise Which Build And Improves The World's Possessions...if Enterprise Is Afoot, Wealth Accumulates Whatever May Be Happening To Thrift; And If Enterprise Is Asleep, Wealth Decays, Whatever Thrift May Be Doing.

Decay

World

May

In A Regime Of Free Trade And Free Economic Intercourse It Would Be Of Little Consequence That Iron Lay On One Side Of A Political Frontier, And Labour, Coal, And Blast Furnaces On The Other. But As It Is, Men Have Devised Ways To Impoverish Themselves And One Another; And Prefer Collective Animosities To Individual Happiness.

Men

Individual Happiness

Iron

Whenever You Save Five Shillings You Put A Man Out Of Work For A Day.

Education

Laughter

Inspiration

Galton's Eccentric, Sceptical, Observing, Flashing, Cavalry-leader Type Of Mind Led Him Eventually To Become The Founder Of The Most Important, Significant And, I Would Add, Genuine Branch Of Sociology Which Exists, Namely Eugenics.

Eugenics

Leader

Mind

Dangerous Acts Can Be Done Safely In A Community Which Thinks And Feels Rightly, Which Would Be The Way To Hell If They Were Executed By Those Who Think And Feel Wrongly.

Thinking

Community

Would Be

The Social Object Of Skilled Investment Should Be To Defeat The Dark Forces Of Time And Ignorance Which Envelope Our Future.

Ignorance

Dark

Skills

The Biggest Problem Is Not To Let People Accept New Ideas, But To Let Them Forget The Old Ones.

Ideas

People

Problem

The Importance Of Money Flows From It Being A Link Between The Present And The Future.

Money

Business

Future

When I Find New Information I Change My Mind; What Do You Do?

Mind

Information

New Information

There Is Nothing So Disastrous As A Rational Investment Policy In An Irrational World.

Investing

World

Investment

It Is Preferable To Regard Labour, Including, Of Course, The Personal Services Of The Entrepreneur, And His Assistants, As The Sole Factor Of Production, Operating In A Given Environment Of Technique, Natural Resources, Capital Equipment And Effective Demand. This Is Why We Have Been Able To Take Labour As The Sole Physical Unit Which We Require In Our Economic System, Apart From Units Of Money And Of Time.

Entrepreneur

Technique

Demand

Perhaps It Is Historically True That No Order Of Society Ever Perishes Save By Its Own Hand.

Hands

Order

It Is Impossible That The Intention Of The Entrepreneur Who Has Borrowed In Order To Increase Investment Can Become Effective (except In Substitution For Investment By Other Entrepreneurs Which Would Have Occurred Otherwise) At A Faster Rate Than The Public Decide To Increase Their Savings

Philosophy

Order

Entrepreneur

Thus Those Reformers, Who Look For A Remedy By Creating Artificial Carrying-costs For The Money Through The Device Of Requiring Legal-tender Currency To Be Periodically Stamped At A Prescribed Cost In Order To Retain Its Quality As Money, Or In Analogous Ways, Have Been On The Right Track; And The Practical Value Of Their Proposals Deserves Consideration.

Order

Creating

Track

If, However, A Government Refrains From Regulations And Allows Matters To Take Their Course, Essential Commodities Soon Attain A Level Of Price Out Of The Reach Of All But The Rich, The Worthlessness Of The Money Becomes Apparent, And The Fraud Upon The Public Can Be Concealed No Longer.

Money

Government

Deception

I Am Sure That The Power Of Vested Interests Is Vastly Exaggerated Compared With The Gradual Encroachment Of Ideas.

Ideas

Encroachment

Interest

This Long Run Is A Misleading Guide To Current Affairs. In The Long Run We Are All Dead. Economists Set Themselves Too Easy, Too Useless A Task If In Tempestuous Seasons They Can Only Tell Us That When The Storm Is Long Past The Ocean Is Flat Again.

Death

Running

Ocean

God Has Arrived. I Met Him On The 5:15 Train.

Mets

Train

If You Owe Your Bank Manager A Thousand Pounds, You Are At His Mercy. If You Owe Him A Million Pounds, He Is At Your Mercy.

Bankers

Investing

Pounds

Ideas Shape The Course Of History.

Inspirational

Life Changing

Carpe Diem

Economists Must Leave To Adam Smith Alone The Glory Of The Quarto, Must Pluck The Day, Fling Pamphlets Into The Wind, Write Always Sub Specie Temporis , And Achieve Immortality By Accident, If At All.

Writing

Wind

Glory

The Political Problem Of Mankind Is To Combine Three Things: Economic Efficiency, Social Justice And Individual Liberty.

Justice

Political

Liberty

The Avoidance Of Taxes Is The Only Intellectual Pursuit That Still Carries Any Reward.

Funny

Business

Humor

I Was Suffering From My Chronic Delusion That One Good Share Is Safer Than Ten Bad Ones, And I Am Always Forgetting That Hardly Anyone Else Shares This Particular Delusion.

Suffering

Forget

Like All His Type, Newton Was Wholly Aloof From Women.

Newton

Type

Aloof

The Power To Become Habituated To His Surroundings And Therefore To No Longer Be Grateful For What Is Good In It Is A Marked Characteristic Of Mankind And Needs To Be Fought Against If A Person Is To Be Happy.

Gratitude

Grateful

Needs

It Has Been Pointed Out Already That No Knowledge Of Probabilities, Less In Degree Than Certainty, Helps Us To Know What Conclusions Are True, And That There Is No Direct Relation Between The Truth Of A Proposition And Its Probability. Probability Begins And Ends With Probability.

Truth

Math

Degrees

Newton Was A Judaic Monotheist Of The School Of Maimonides

School

Newton

Once Doubt Begins It Spreads Rapidly.

Doubt

Spread

The Love Of Money As A Possession-as Distinguished From The Love Of Money As A Means To The Enjoyments And Realities Of Life-will Be Recognized For What It Is, A Somewhat Disgusting Morbidity, One Of Those Semi-criminal, Semi-pathological Propensities Which One Hands Over With A Shudder To The Specialists In Mental Disease

Life

Mean

Reality

One Blames Politicians, Not For Inconsistency But For Obstinacy. They Are The Interpreters, Not The Masters, Of Our Fate. It Is Their Job, In Fact, To Register The Fact Accompli.

Jobs

Fate

Politics

I Do Not Know Which Makes A Man More Conservative - To Know Nothing But The Present, Or Nothing But The Past.

Acceptance

Past

Men

Nothing Can Preserve The Integrity Of Contact Between Individuals, Except A Discretionary Authority In The State To Revise What Has Become Intolerable. The Powers Of Uninterrupted Usury Are Too Great. If The Accretions Of Vested Interests Were To Grow Without Mitigation For Many Generations, Half The Population Would Be No Better Than Slaves To The Other Half.

Integrity

Generations

Half

All Production Is For The Purpose Of Ultimately Satisfying A Consumer.

Purpose

Consumers

Satisfying

The Inhabitant Of London Could Order By Telephone, Sipping His Morning Tea In Bed, The Various Products Of The Whole Earth -- He Could At The Same Time And By The Same Means Adventure His Wealth In The Natural Resources And New Enterprise Of Any Quarter Of The World -- He Could Secure Forthwith, If He Wished, Cheap And Comfortable Means Of Transit To Any Country Or Climate Without Passport Or Other Formality.

Country

Morning

Peace

Investing Is An Activity Of Forecasting The Yield Over The Life Of The Asset; Speculation Is The Activity Of Forecasting The Psychology Of The Market.

It Economics Is A Method Rather Than A Doctrine, An Apparatus Of The Mind, A Technique Of Thinking Which Helps Its Possessor To Draw Correct Conclusions.

Thinking

Mind

Doctrine

Obstinacy Can Bring Only A Penalty And No Reward.

Rewards

Penalties

Obstinacy

If Farming Were To Be Organised Like The Stock Market, A Farmer Would Sell His Farm In The Morning When It Was Raining, Only To Buy It Back In The Afternoon When The Sun Came Out.

Wise

Morning

Rain

An Investor Who Proposes To Ignore Near-term Market Fluctuations Needs Greater Resources For Safety And Must Not Operate On So Large A Scale, If At All, With Borrowed Money.

Safety

Needs

Resources

Chess Is A Cure For Headaches.

Chess

Headache

Cures

All The Political Parties Alike Have Their Origins In Past Ideas And Not In New Ideas And None More Conspicuously So Than The Marxists .

Party

Past

Ideas

I Believe Myself To Be Writing A Book On Economic Theory Which Will Largely Revolutionize - Not, I Suppose, At Once But In The Course Of The Next Ten Years - The Way The World Thinks About Economic Problems.

Believe

Book

Writing

If Economists Could Manage To Get Themselves Thought Of As Humble, Competent People On A Level With Dentists, That Would Be Splendid.

Humble

People

Would Be

In Truth, The Gold Standard Is Already A Barbarous Relic.

Gold

Standards

Relics

Never In History Was There A Method Devised Of Such Efficacy For Setting Each Country's Advantage At Variance With Its Neighbours' As The International Gold (or, Formerly, Silver) Standard.

Country

Gold

Investing

I Don't Feel The Least Humble Before The Vastness Of The Heavens.

Humble

Heaven

Vastness

Government Machinery Has Been Described As A Marvelous Labor Saving Device Which Enables Ten Men To Do The Work Of One.

Men

Liberty

Saving

The Atomic Hypothesis Which Had Worked So Splendidly In Physics Breaks Down In Psychics.

Psychics

Physics

Breaking Down

By A Continuing Process Of Inflation, Government Can Confiscate, Secretly And Unobserved, An Important Part Of The Wealth Of Their Citizens.

Money

Power

Government

In This Autumn Of 1919, In Which I Write, We Are At The Dead Season Of Our Fortunes.

Writing

Autumn

Fortune

The Class War Will Find Me On The Side Of The Educated Bourgeoisie.

War

Class

Bourgeoisie

Economic Privation Proceeds By Easy Stages, And So Long As Men Suffer It Patiently The Outside World Cares Little.

Men

Long

Suffering

It Would Be Foolish, In Forming Our Expectations, To Attach Great Weight To Matters Which Are Very Uncertain.

Expectations

Would Be

Weight

The Disruptive Powers Of Excessive National Fecundity May Have Played A Greater Part In Bursting The Bonds Of Convention Than Either The Power Of Ideas Or The Errors Of Autocracy.

Ideas

Ties

Errors

Capitalism Is The Astounding Belief That The Most Wickedest Of Men Will Do The Most Wickedest Of Things For The Greatest Good Of Everyone.

Fun

Business

Men

It Is Ideas, Not Vested Interests, Which Are Dangerous For Good Or Evil.

Ideas

Evil

Dangerous

In The Long Run We Are All Dead.

Funny

Death

Running

Logic , Like Lyrical Poetry , Is No Employment For The Middle-aged

Employment

Logic

Lyrical

If You Owe Your Bank A Hundred Pounds, You Have A Problem. But If You Owe A Million, It Has.

Banking

Pounds

Problem

When My Information Changes, I Alter My Conclusions. What Do You Do, Sir?

Information

Conclusion

For At Least Another Hundred Years We Must Pretend To Ourselves And To Every One That Fair Is Foul And Foul Is Fair; For Foul Is Useful And Fair Is Not. Avarice And Usury And Precaution Must Be Our Gods For A Little Longer Still.

Years

Liberty

Littles

Economics Is A Very Dangerous Science.

Economics

Dangerous

When Somebody Persuades Me I Am Wrong, I Change My Mind.

Mind

Experience Shows That What Happens Is Always The Thing Against Which One Has Not Made Provision In Advance.

Investing

Made

Provision

I'd Rather Be Vaguely Right Than Precisely Wrong.

Economics

It Is The Long Term Investor Who Will In Practice Come In For The Most Criticism. For It Is The Essence Of His Behaviour That He Should Be Eccentric, Unconventional And Rash In The Eyes Of The Average Opinion. If He Is Successful, That Will Only Confirm The General Belief In His Rashness; And If In The Short Run He Is Unsuccessful, Which Is Very Likely, He Will Not Receive Much Mercy. Worldly Wisdom Teaches That It Is Better For Reputation To Fail Conventionally Than To Succeed Unconventionally.

Running

Independent

Eye

The Time Has Already Come When Each Country Needs A Considered National Policy About What Size Of Population, Whether Larger Or Smaller Than At Present Or The Same, Is Most Expedient. And Having Settled This Policy, We Must Take Steps To Carry It Into Operation. The Time May Arrive A Little Later When The Community As A Whole Must Pay Attention To The Innate Quality As Well As To The Mere Numbers Of Its Future Members.

Country

Numbers

Eugenics

The Engine Which Drives Enterprise Is Not Thrift, But Profit.

Profit

Enterprise

Thrift

I See, Therefore, The Rentier Aspect Of Capitalism As A Transitional Phase Which Will Disappear When It Has Done Its Work. And With The Disappearance Of Its Rentier Aspect Much Else In It Besides Will Suffer A Sea-change. It Will Be, Moreover, A Great Advantage Of The Order Of Events Which I Am Advocating, That The Euthanasia Of The Rentier, Of The Functionless Investor, Will Be Nothing Sudden, Merely A Gradual But Prolonged Continuance Of What We Have Seen Recently In Great Britain, And Will Need No Revolution.

Wisdom

Order

Sea

Adam Smith And Malthus And Ricardo ! There Is Something About These Three Figures To Evoke More Than Ordinary Sentiments From Us Their Children In The Spirit.

Children

Ordinary

Three

It Is Astonishing What Foolish Things One Can Temporarily Believe If One Thinks Too Long Alone, Particularly In Economics.

Believe

Thinking

Long

Newton Was Not The First Of The Age Of Reason, He Was The Last Of The Magicians.

Science

Age

Lasts

When The Final Result Is Expected To Be A Compromise, It Is Often Prudent To Start From An Extreme Position.

Finals

Prudent

Compromise

What An Extraordinary Episode In The Economic Progress Of Man That Age Was Which Came To An End In August, 1914!

Men

August

History

Canada Is A Place Of Infinite Promise. We Like The People, And If One Ever Had To Emigrate, This Would Be The Destination, Not The U.s.a. The Hills, Lakes And Forests Make It A Place Of Peace And Repose Of The Mind, Such As One Never Finds In The U.s.a.

Lakes

People

Promise

The Numeric System Was Invented To Help Man To Put Order In The Chaos Of The World.

Men

Order

World

The Boom, Not The Slump, Is The Right Time For Austerity At The Treasury.

Slumps

Investing

Austerity

Once We Allow Ourselves To Be Disobedient To The Test Of An Accountant's Profit, We Have Begun To Change Our Civilization.

Civilization

Tests

Profit

It Is The Long-term Investor...who Will In Practice Come In For The Most Criticism... For It Is The Essence Of His Behavior That He Should Be Eccentric, Unconventional, And Rash In The Eyes Of Average Opinion

Eye

Average

Essence

It Is Better That A Man Should Tyrannize Over His Bank Balance Than Over His Fellow-citizens.

Men

Democracy

Balance

Should Government Refrain From Regulation (taxation), The Worthlessness Of The Money Becomes Apparent And The Fraud Can No Longer Be Concealed.

Government

Taxation

Regulation

The Businessman Is Only Tolerable So Long As His Gains Can Be Held To Bear Some Relation To What, Roughly And In Some Sense, His Activities Have Contributed To Society.

Long

Gains

Bears

I Am Myself Impressed By The Great Social Advantages Of Increasing The Stock Of Capital Until It Ceases To Be Scarce.

Social

Advantage

Scarce

It Is Better That A Man Should Tyrannize Over His Bank Balance Than Over His Fellow-citizens And Whilst The Former Is Sometimes Denounced As Being But A Means To The Latter, Sometimes At Least It Is An Alternative.

Money

Mean

Men

The Ideas Of Economists And Political Philosophers, Both When They Are Right And When They Are Wrong, Are More Powerful Than Is Generally Understood. Indeed, The World Is Ruled By Little Else.

Powerful

Freedom

Ideas

Gold Is A Relic From A Time When Government's Were Less Trustworthy In These Matters (currency Debasement) Than They Are Now.

Philosophy

Government

Political

Businessmen Have A Different Set Of Delusions From Politicians; And Need, Therefore, Different Handling. They Are, However, Much Milder Than Politicians, At The Same Time Allured And Terrified By The Glare Of Publicity....you Could Do Anything You Like With Them, If You Would Treat Them (even The Big Ones) Not As Wolves And Tigers, But As Domestic Animals By Nature, Even Though They Have Been Badly Brought Up And Not Trained As You Would Wish.

Animal

Wish

Different

Too Large A Proportion Of Recent "mathematical" Economics Are Mere Concoctions, As Imprecise As The Initial Assumptions They Rest On, Which Allow The Author To Lose Sight Of The Complexities And Interdependencies Of The Real World In A Maze Of Pretentious And Unhelpful Symbols.

Real

Sight

Investing

For My Own Part, I Believe That There Is Social And Psychological Justification For Significant Inequalities Of Incomes And Wealth.

Wisdom

Believe

Income

... A Speculator Is One Who Runs Risks Of Which He Is Aware And An Investor Is One Who Runs Risks Of Which He Is Unaware.

Running

Risk

Investing

[t]he Theory Of Output As A Whole, Which Is What The Following Book Purports To Provide, Is Much More Easily Adapted To The Conditions Of A Totalitarian State, Than Is The Theory Of Production And Distribution Of A Given Output Produced Under The Conditions Of Free Competition And A Large Measure Of Laissez-faire.

Book

Competition

Liberty

Newton Was Not The First Of The Age Of Reason. He Was The Last Of The Magicians, The Last Of The Babylonians And Sumerians, The Last Great Mind That Looked Out On The Visible And Intellectual World With The Same Eyes As Those Who Began To Build Our Intellectual Inheritance Rather Less Than 10,000 Years Ago.

Eye

Science

Years

The Markets Are Moved By Animal Spirits, And Not By Reason.

Animal

Spirit

Reason

The Forces Of The Nineteenth Century Have Run Their Course And Are Exhausted.

Running

Exhausted

Century

The Friends Of Gold Will Have To Be Extremely Wise And Moderate If They Are To Avoid A Revolution.

Wise

Gold

Revolution

Practical Men Who Believe Themselves To Be Quite Exempt From Any Intellectual Influence, Are Usually The Slaves Of Some Defunct Economist. Madmen In Authority, Who Hear Voices In The Air, Are Distilling Their Frenzy From Some Academic Scribbler Of A Few Years Back

Believe

Men

Air

I Can't Remember My Telephone Number, But I Know It Was In The High Numbers.

Numbers

Telephones

Remember

The Right Remedy For The Trade Cycle Is Not To Be Found In Abolishing Booms And Thus Keeping Us Permanently In A Semi-slump; But In Abolishing Slumps And Thus Keeping Us Permanently In A Quasi-boom.

Business

Slumps

Found

When The Facts Change, I Change My Mind.

Business

Mind

Facts

Successful Investing Is Anticipating The Anticipations Of Others.

Wise

Successful

Investing

Nevertheless, If We Contemplate A Society With A Somewhat Stable Wage-unit, With National Characteristics Which Determine The Propensity To Consume And The Preference For Liquidity, And With A Monetary System Which Rigidly Links The Quantity Of Money To The Stock Of The Precious Metals, It Will Be Essential For The Maintenance Of Prosperity That The Authorities Should Pay Close Attention To The State Of The Balance Of Trade. For A Favourable Balance, Provided It Is Not Too Large, Will Prove Extremely Stimulating; Whilst An Unfavourable Balance May Soon Produce A State Of Persistent Depression.

Balance

Essentials

Attention

Ideas, Knowledge, Art, Hospitality, Travel - These Are Things Which Should In Their Nature Be International. But Let Goods Be Homespun Whenever It Is Reasonably And Conveniently Possible And Above All Let Finance Be Primarily National.

Letting Go

Art

Business

Education: The Inculcation Of The Incomprehensible Into The Indifferent By The Incompetent.

Education

Economics

Indifferent

How Long Will It Be Necessary To Pay City Men So Entirely Out Of Proportion To What Other Servants Of Society Commonly Receive For Performing Social Services Not Less Useful Or Difficult?

Men

Cities

Long

The Spectacle Of Modern Investment Markets Has Sometimes Moved Me Towards The Conclusion That To Make The Purchase Of An Investment Permanent And Indissoluble, Like Marriage, Except By Reason Of Death Or Other Grave Cause, Might Be A Useful Remedy For Our Contemporary Evils. For This Would Force The Investor To Direct His Mind To The Long-term Prospects And To Those Only.

Long

Evil

Mind

I Work For A Government I Despise For Ends I Think Criminal.

Thinking

Government

Criminals

It Is Generally Agreed That Casinos Should, In The Public Interest, Be Inaccessible And Expensive. And Perhaps The Same Is True Of Stock Exchanges.

Gambling

Casinos

Financial

Lenin Is Said To Have Declared That The Best Way To Destroy The Capitalistic System Was To Debauch The Currency. . . Lenin Was Certainly Right. There Is No Subtler, No Surer Means Of Overturning The Existing Basis Of Society Than To Debauch The Currency. The Process Engages All The Hidden Forces Of Economic Law On The Side Of Destruction, And Does It In A Manner Which Not One Man In A Million Can Diagnose.

Mean

Men

Law

Long Run Is A Misleading Guide To Current Affairs. In The Long Run We Are All Dead.

Running

Long

Affair

If Human Nature Felt No Temptation To Take A Chance There Might Not Be Much Investment Merely As A Result Of Cold Calculation.

Business

Temptation

Might

The Expected Never Happens; It Is The Unexpected Always.

Investing

Unexpected

Expected

But Whilst There May Be Intrinsic Reasons For The Scarcity Of Land, There Are No Intrinsic Reasons For The Scarcity Of Capital.

Land

Scarcity

May

It's Not Bringing In The New Ideas That's So Hard; It's Getting Rid Of The Old Ones.

Ideas

New Ideas

Hard

I Know Of Only Three People Who Really Understand Money. A Professor At Another University. One Of My Students. And A Rather Junior Clerk At The Bank Of England.

People

Clerks

Juniors

To Our Generation Einstein Has Been Made To Become A Double Symbol - A Symbol Of The Mind Travelling In The Cold Regions Of Space, And A Symbol Of The Brave And Generous Outcast, Pure In Heart And Cheerful Of Spirit.

Heart

Our Generation

Space

I Think That Capitalism, Wisely Managed, Can Probably Be Made More Efficient For Attaining Economic Ends Than Any Alternative System Yet In Sight, But That In Itself Is In Many Ways Extremely Objectionable.

Thinking

Sight

Alternatives

Conservatism Leads Nowhere; It Satisfies No Ideal.

Wise

Conservatism

Ideals

Understanding Quotes: Their Essence and Application

Quotes, or quotations, are powerful tools in communication, encapsulating ideas, emotions, and wisdom in concise expressions. They serve various purposes across different contexts, from academic writing to everyday conversation.

1. Defining Quotes

A quote is a repetition of someone else's statement or thoughts. It can be a direct replication of words spoken or written by another individual, often used to support arguments, provide evidence, or convey profound insights.

2. The Importance of Quotes

2.1. Enhancing Credibility

Incorporating quotes from authoritative sources can bolster the credibility of your work. By referencing experts or primary sources, you demonstrate thorough research and a solid foundation for your arguments.

2.2. Providing Evidence

Quotes serve as concrete evidence to support claims. In academic and professional writing, they validate points made, offering readers a basis to trust the information presented.

2.3. Conveying Emotions and Perspectives

Quotes can encapsulate emotions and perspectives succinctly. They allow writers to express complex feelings or viewpoints through the words of others, often more eloquently than paraphrasing.

3. Types of Quotes

3.1. Direct Quotes

Direct quotes involve copying the exact words from a source, enclosed in quotation marks. They are used when the original wording is significant or particularly well-expressed.

3.2. Indirect Quotes (Paraphrasing)

Indirect quotes restate the original message in your own words. While not enclosed in quotation marks, they still require proper attribution to the original source.

3.3. Block Quotes

Block quotes are lengthy direct quotations, formatted as a separate block of text. They are typically used for quotes exceeding a certain length, varying by citation style. For instance, in APA style, quotes longer than 40 words are formatted as block quotes.

4. Proper Usage of Quotes

4.1. Contextual Relevance

Ensure that the quote you choose is relevant to the topic and adds value to your content. Avoid inserting quotes solely for decorative purposes.

4.2. Integration into Your Writing

Seamlessly integrate quotes into your writing. Introduce them appropriately and follow up with analysis or commentary to connect them to your main points.

4.3. Attribution and Citation

Always attribute quotes to their original authors and provide proper citations according to the required style guide (APA, MLA, Chicago, etc.).

5. Common Mistakes to Avoid

5.1. Overusing Quotes

Relying too heavily on quotes can overshadow your voice. Use them sparingly to support your arguments, not replace them.

5.2. Lack of Analysis

Presenting a quote without analysis or explanation can leave readers questioning its relevance. Always follow up with your interpretation or discussion.

5.3. Misquoting or Taking Out of Context

Ensure that quotes are accurate and not taken out of context, as this can mislead readers and undermine your credibility.

6. Quotes in Different Contexts

6.1. Academic Writing

In academic writing, quotes are used to support arguments, provide evidence, and engage with existing literature. Proper citation is crucial to avoid plagiarism.

6.2. Journalism

Journalists use quotes to provide firsthand accounts, add authenticity, and present multiple perspectives within a story.

6.3. Literature and Creative Writing

In literature, quotes can be used to convey character voices, themes, and stylistic elements. They enrich narratives and provide depth to storytelling.

7. Punctuation and Formatting

Understanding the correct punctuation and formatting of quotes is essential:

Quotation Marks: Always enclose direct quotes within quotation marks.

Punctuation Placement: In American English, periods and commas are placed inside quotation marks, while colons and semicolons are placed outside.

Block Quotes: For longer quotes, format them as block quotes without quotation marks, and indent the entire block.

8. Ethical Considerations

Ethical use of quotes involves accurate representation, proper attribution, and respect for intellectual property. Misuse can lead to plagiarism, which carries serious academic and professional consequences.

9. Tools for Managing Quotes

Utilize tools like citation generators and plagiarism checkers to manage quotes effectively. These tools help ensure proper formatting and originality in your writing.

Conclusion

Quotes are invaluable in enriching content, providing evidence, and conveying complex ideas succinctly. When used appropriately, they enhance the quality and credibility of your writing. Always ensure relevance, proper integration, and ethical usage to maximize their impact.

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